Evaluation of Arrival Manager Horizon Extension in a Trajectory Management context

The Arrival Manager (AMAN) system is used to provide regulation on aircraft entering the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA). New regulations require the AMAN to freeze the sequence further ahead than the current 14 minutes with the aim of reducing fuel burn and decreasing controller workload. The increased horizon combined with uncertainty on arriving aircraft cause these aircraft to “pop-up”. This causes sequence errors which increase workload and fuel burn. These effects are more pronounced when using the AMAN in a Trajectory Based Operation (TBO) environment. Previously, research on the horizon extension and pop-up impact and solutions has been performed, although in idealized scenarios without a realistic solution. This research aims to model the Arrival Manager in high fidelity to support decisions on the Arrival Manager design, and to develop and test realistic solutions to decrease the impact of the pop-up traffic when extending the AMAN horizon towards TBO operations.