In order to optimize the current Schiphol operations, an accurate weather forecast is of great importance. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) provides a probabilistic weather forecast for Low Visibility Procedures (LVPs) to Schiphol, which is computed using deterministic weather models. If these LVPs occur due to low visibility or low ceiling, adjusted capacity and flow restriction are needed within airport operations. Inaccurate forecasting can lead to last-minute restrictions or restrictions when not needed. This research will assess the performance of the probabilistic forecast of visibility and ceiling at Schiphol airport. This will be done for the performance of three different weather models: HIRLAM, HARMONIE and ECMWF. Causes for inaccurate forecasting will be identified and suggestions for improvement of the probabilistic weather forecast will be the end result of this research.
Graduated: October 2021