Accurate weather forecasts are crucial information to regulate the operations at Schiphol Airport. Sudden changes in weather conditions need to be communicated in a fast and efficient way to maintain the safety and efficiency for flight operations. KNMI provides a probabilistic weather forecast, called the Schiphol Kansverwachting (SKV), which is produced using output of numerical weather prediction models in combination with the latest observations and several statistical post-processing tools. In particular information on the wind direction and the wind gusts is highly important to support air traffic control. Relatively large errors could lead to restrictions which were in the end not needed or it could lead to restrictions which were issued too late. This research will evaluate the performance of the SKV of wind direction and wind gusts for three different weather models: HIRLAM, HARMONIE and ECMWF. Quantitative information on the forecasting errors will be identified, but also suggestions for possible improvements on the weather forecasts will be part of the result of this study.
Graduated: July 2022